A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
